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Why Asia Won't Reject Russia's Hydrocarbons or China's Rare Earths Despite US Pressure_我的网站

A |     IT之家 7 月 23 日消息，国际数据公司（IDC）今日发布最新手机季度跟踪报告，2026 年第二季度，中国智能手机市场出货量约为 6,601 万台，同比下降 4.3%，已连续五个季度出现同比下滑。    "Given that energy is the lifeline of modern economies, modern economic growth patterns, there are not that many alternatives available and there are only a few countries that are players in the global energy market. Russia certainly cannot be counted out and Russia cannot be marginalized in the global energy landscape," says Harsh V. Pant, professor of international relations at the King's College London India Institute and director of the strategic studies program at the Observer Research Foundation.,International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol and US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm on 12 July urged Indo-Pacific countries at the Sydney Energy Forum to diversify their supply chains for energy and critical minerals to reduce "dependency" on Russia over its special operation in Ukraine, as well as on China.,"At a time when the energy prices are going up and affecting some of the poorest and most vulnerable countries around the world very significantly, I think Asian countries will continue to cooperate with Russia in order to support their economies and their domestic requirements," says Pant.,He explains that dealing with Russia has become an economic imperative at a time of energy crunch given that Moscow is offering discounted oil to a number of countries. Furthermore, maintaining economic relations with Russia is a question of survival and the people's well-being for some Asian nations and countries of the Global South, according to the professor. Under these circumstances it's highly unlikely that they will succumb to the pressure from Washington and sever ties with Russia, he says.,"For political leaders across the world, at a time when economies are just beginning to grow after the long COVID pandemic, they can [not] afford a lack of energy and higher energy prices," Pant stresses.,Russia, Venezuela to Expand Oil Sector Cooperation, Working on Pact to Circumvent Western Sanctions4 July, 11:15 GMT,Anti-Russia Sanctions: India and EU Approaches,To illustrate his point, the professor cites India's approach to Russia's affairs and the Ukraine crisis. New Delhi continues to import energy from Russia despite the US and Europe urging India to join sweeping anti-Russia sanctions.,"What we have seen in the last two months is a gradual, significant increase in what India is buying from Russia when it comes to oil," the professor says. "This is particularly relevant again because Russia has offered India discounted oil and India's economic requirements demand that India continues buying this oil. The challenges facing India's population mean that the Indian leadership has an incentive in continuing to engage with Russia on this question.",At the same time, the European Union's decision to slap sanctions on Russia and slash energy supplies from the country have backfired on Europe's economy, sending fuel prices up and accelerating inflation.,"We have seen how Europe is struggling to reduce its dependence and the kind of costs that it is imposing on Europeans," says Pant. "Most Asian countries would be reluctant to go down that route.",Brussels: Anti-Russia Sanctions Raise Questions About Sustainability of EU's Financial Model 10 June, 08:44 GMT,The disruptions in the supply of crude after the imposition of ban on imports from Russia have given a dramatic boost to energy prices and inflation, echoes Suranjali Tandon, assistant professor at the Delhi-based National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.,"The current inflationary trends are the most serious challenge for policy makers," she says. "Central banks around the world have begun the process of unwinding loose monetary policy… The current inflation rates have led to internal economic strains and as seen in Sri Lanka, a political upheaval. The cooperation between Russia and Asian countries may be economically prudent.",Moreover, major Asian economies – India and China – are ready to absorb crude supplies from Russia rejected by the West, according to her.,At the same time, Washington's plan to force Asian states to join anti-Russia sanctions is fraught with severe risks for the global economy, Tandon warns.,"The ban, if carried out by other Asian economies, will further cut off supplies of refined petroleum and related products," she says. "This could lead to an unmanageable inflationary spiral while depressing global growth.",Lithium, Gold & Rare Earths: How China May Open the Door to New Business Opportunities for Afghans19 August 2021, 08:38 GMT,Are There Alternatives to Russia & China?,According to Tandon, India sets an important precedent for other Asian states by withstanding the US pressure when it comes to energy sanctions against Russia. By doing this, India is defending its internal interests in the first place, the professor underscores.,She hails the idea that single technology or fuel dependence should be avoided. This principle could be applied to Russia, China, or Western countries in a similar way. However, when the West is calling upon Asian nations to shift to wind, solar, and even nuclear power and abandon fossil fuels, it's clear that this shift cannot be done immediately, the professor emphasizes.,Even after the "green" transition, Asian states and the Global South are likely to maintain ties with Russia and China, who have been developing cutting-edge nuclear technologies and mining rare earths needed for producing electric batteries and electronic components.,"Russia's energy supplies will remain globally important," Tandon forecasts. "More importantly, even when this transition does take place the natural resources including minerals used as inputs in renewables will be concentrated in countries like China. China produces 63% of the world’s rare earth elements, including 45% of molybdenum as per IEA, so it's unclear what countries must do to expand alternatives while being under pressure to transition quickly."。         自 3 月下旬起，安卓厂商因存储等核心元器件成本持续攀升，被迫陆续上调产品售价或调整配置方案，对消费者换机意愿形成明显压制。与此同时，“国补”政策对需求的拉动效应逐步减弱。受此影响，今年“618”大促期间，中国智能手机整体销量较去年同期降幅接近 15%，显示出短期需求端的疲态。         从厂商格局来看，华为与苹果稳居市场第一梯队；OPPO 和 vivo 构成第二梯队；小米与荣耀紧随其后。         在整体市场低迷的背景下，头部厂商华为与苹果表现突出，第二季度出货量同比增幅分别达到 19.4% 和 24.4%，成为市场中的亮点，位居前两位。    OPPO 稳居行业前三，品牌高端化成效突出，季度均价升至 395 美元（IT之家注：现汇率约合 2679 元人民币），持续领跑安卓头部厂商。

B | 中端 Reno 系列牢牢占据 400–600 美元安卓中高端市场龙头地位；高端 Find X9 系列与无折痕折叠旗舰 Find N6 助力 OPPO 600 美元以上价位段出货连续两季度实现三位数同比增长。子品牌一加表现亮眼，是安卓阵营中唯一保持同比增长的品牌。    vivo 依托中端、高端市场双轮驱动，保持稳定市场表现。品牌稳居 400 美元以下价位段市场首位，凭借普惠机型夯实销量基本盘。多重产品合力之下，vivo 在 600 美元以上高端市场领跑安卓阵营。

C |     小米回归到市场第五位。

D | 对上游元器件成本大幅攀升，小米终端调价幅度相较同业更为克制；为守住盈利空间，品牌主动缩减低端机型出货规模，规避亏损压力。与此同时，小米同步优化产品矩阵，持续推出多款全新机型，在严控整机成本的前提下，全面升级产品综合实力，以更强产品力拉动用户换机需求，依靠灵活的产品策略对冲行业下行与成本冲击。    荣耀在头部主流厂商中表现稳健，在折叠屏赛道表现稳定，全新 Magic V6 市场热度走高，助力荣耀稳固国内折叠屏市场第二的席位。

E |          报告提到，2026 年上半年，存储芯片价格持续冲高，叠加各类上游元器件成本全面上行，国内智能手机行业承压明显，市场价格结构迎来显著分化。

F |          受成本挤压影响，400 美元以下中低端机型盈利空间持续收窄，各大品牌主动下调低端机型产能与投放节奏，该价位段市场份额同比大幅缩减 11.8 个百分点。

G |     厂商纷纷将研发、产能资源向利润空间更充足的中高端产品集中，市场重心加速上移：400–600 美元中高端价位段份额同比提升 5.9 个百分点，600 美元以上高端市场份额更是大幅扩张 10.4 个百分点。         IDC 中国研究经理郭天翔指出，随着各厂商前期采购的低价库存物料逐步消耗殆尽，成本压力将在下半年集中释放。

H | 预计 2026 年下半年中国智能手机市场出货量同比降幅可能扩大至 20% 左右。展望 2027 年，存储价格难有明显回落空间，整体市场仍将面临严峻挑战。但也不必过度悲观 —— 消费者的手机使用需求并未消失，仅是延迟释放。手机作为人人随身不可或缺的终端设备，其核心地位不会动摇。预计到 2028 至 2029 年，随着新一轮换机周期的到来，市场将有望迎来复苏。

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Published on:19:44:49